By Neil Pharaoh, Co-founder Director, Tanck & Rory Parker Associate Director & Queensland General Manager, Tanck
On 3 May 2025, Australians delivered Anthony Albanese and the Labor Party a commanding second-term victory—one that has reshaped the political map. Based on current trends, Labor now holds twice the number of seats as the Coalition, with the LNP split across Liberal, National, and merged parties in Queensland.
In hindsight, the warning signs were there—but few saw a swing of this scale coming. Just months ago, Labor was behind in the polls. Then came Cyclone Alfred, a faltering LNP campaign, and a shift in voter sentiment that changed the course of the election.
So, what happened? What’s next? And how should your organisation respond?
The Election: What We Saw
Swings like these don’t happen often.
– Braddon (TAS): 15.3% two-party preferred swing to Labor;
– Griffith (QLD): Labor regained the seat with a 21.6% swing from the Greens;
– Dickson (QLD): Peter Dutton’s own seat flipped to Labor with a 7.5% swing.
Labor ran a disciplined, local, and values-based campaign. They focused tightly on cost-of-living, healthcare access, and global instability—concerns everyday Australians are grappling with. And they ran it well, candidate by candidate, community by community. With that said a number of seats also saw some heavy swings against Labor:
– Bendigo (VIC): almost 10% swing from Labor to Nationals (this covers the same State Seat as the Victorian Premier, and the National Parties campaign focused heavily on linking the current Labor MP to the Victorian Premier);
– Bean (ACT) and Fremantle (WA): double digit swing to Independents;
– Calwell (VIC): over 14% collapse in Labor Primary – Where Prime Ministerial intervention denied local Labor Party members the ability to vote in a preselection, leading to a mammoth task of preference sorting ahead.
These lessons aren’t just for political parties. For-purpose organisations should take note:
– What are the three messages your organisation will stick to—no matter what?
– How do you frame your impact through the lens of government priorities?
– Are you building relationships locally, in the electorates where policy meets people?
A Second-Term Government Means Change
It might feel like a “status quo” result—same Prime Minister, same government—but don’t be fooled. There’s a real shift underway, and that spells opportunity.
– New MPs and Senators: Hundreds of staffers and dozens of MPs are stepping into the building for the first time. Now is the time to introduce yourself.
– New Ministers: With the new Ministers now announced post-reshuffle, senior figures retiring, and factional jostling in full swing, the frontbench has gotten a facelift. This means promotions for several Ministers who will now have to fully-engross themselves in their portfolio. For the unlucky few who have suffered a demotion—maybe they’re now owed a favour or two and have more time on their hands to engage with your organisation!
– New Priorities: A fresh Minister usually means a fresh outlook. Even if core policy remains, the angle and emphasis may shift—and you want to be part of shaping that.
– Departmental Changes: A machinery-of-government (MoG) change is likely, altering who holds which levers in Canberra.
– More Ambition?: We’ll see. With a stronger mandate and the bruising Voice referendum behind them, Labor may now lean into reform—if they feel the political runway is long enough.
What This Means for You
In short? This is your moment.
If you’ve been engaging already, keep going. If not, now’s a perfect time to start fresh. The first 100 days of a new government are crucial: priorities are set, budgets are shaped, and relationships are built.
So what should you be doing?
– Send your congratulations: To every new MP, regardless of party. Good engagement is bipartisan—and helpful allies exist on all sides.
– Don’t forget commiserations: Lost seats don’t always mean lost influence. Many defeated MPs end up as senior advisors, board members, or candidates again.
– Map your alignment: Labor’s election commitments tell you what’s coming. If your mission intersects with their promises, say so—clearly, credibly, and early.
As this 48th Parliament kicks off, one thing is certain: advocacy windows like this don’t come around often. Make the most of it.
Tanck will be unpacking this topic further at the upcoming For Purpose Alliance launch in Brisbane this July—offering practical strategies and real-world tools to strengthen your government engagement. We hope to see you there: BOOK YOUR SEAT HERE
If you’re looking to refine your strategy, meet the right people, or just figure out where to start—Tanck is here to help. Contact us now and let’s talk about how your organisation can step confidently into this new political chapter.
